Packers and Bucs

 Howdy,

I' sure you've heard it NFL Championship Weekend. Here are a couple of things I like:

First Touchdown:

In general, these bets are pretty risky and not a good deal. However, even throwing a small chunk of change can pay off well. 

First things first, Fan duel is offering two super boosts here. I suggest you put some money on them.

1. Mike Evans or Aaron Jones to Score First Touchdown from +363 to +470. Implied odds are now 17.54% chance. This is feels extremely comfortable. Davante Adams may be the most likely to ruin it, but the initial odds of +363 implies 21.6% probability and even that seems low given the two players. The straight up probability at Evans +1000 and Jones 6750 implies 20.86% combined. I recommend taking this bet. Mike Evans is the best red zone receiver in the league, and Aaron Jones just a beast.

If you wanted to hedge the first touchdown some - these are the four options I'd go with - Davante Adams first touch down scorer at +490 (bet about 55% of the super boost bet). He's the best wide receiver left (sorry Tyreek). Travis Kelce is the best pass catcher left, though.

Gronk - AB is out. 

MVS - Tampa Bay dares offenses to throw - we saw it with Tre'quan Smith against the Saints. Think MVS has potential to pop off if the focus goes to Adams.

Miller - I will saw I'm a hard Scotty Miller fan. With AB out, we'll may see some explosive Miller plays again. Defenses may not know him well. He can sneak behind lines and bust a big one.

As you can see - I'm very heavy leaning toward the receiving game. I think Ro Jo still looks off and I've never trusted Fournette. If I were to switch out another rushing touchdown it would be Tom Brady +2800 or Rodgers +1900. You know the two QBs will be at each other, and they're willing to put their bodies on the line for the W.

My initial reaction is that there is a 60% chance you come away with a total of 2.75-5.7 on a 2 unit bet (what ever amount you deem acceptable for a unit). Hedging is always risky because though you have a higher chance of coming away with profit, you're risking more to do it. In this case, I think it makes sense. 

2. Money Line:

Packers -168 (63%) this feels good. Yes, Bucs roasted the packers earlier this season, but Rodgers has since gone back up into the stratosphere of eliteness. If you believe Rodgers is the clear MVP of the league, then Pack wins this game.

Betting lines are about in line with Five Thirty Eight's predictions ( Pack 63% odds and -3.5). I'm not huge into statistical models, but I generally like 538. However, here I'm arguing that they're underplaying the Rodgers affect.

3. My "reach for the stars" parlay

I'm not a huge fan of parlays, but Fanduel usually offers the miss one leg get money back promo and it makes it a little more bearable. 

You've already read about the receivers I like. The packers are just the better team and I expect them to show that. However, I really think Tom's competitiveness helps them run up the score in a failing effort.

4% implied probability. I feel much more confident than that.

4. Passing Yards

I know the weather is iffy, but if you're buying in to my high scoring pass heavy affair, then you gotta take the Rodgers and brady passing yards over.

There should be a boost for them to combine for over 600 yards  at +150. I obviously love it, think there's about 50% chance it happens vs. 40% implied. 

Also Rodgers over 285.5 and Tom Brady over 285.5 is a parlay at +213 - Again think it will be a very pass heavy affair by both teams. 26% implied odds. 

That's all I have. Take these bets with a grain of salt. And Remember - if these bets make you nervous then you're betting too much or betting too often. We're working toward the statue of David, not Mt. Rushmore. Put the dynamite away and pick up the carving tools. Much like I expect Rodgers and Brady to carve each other up.