Chiefs v Bills

 Alright, we already hit on the Mike Evans first TD boost in the first few minutes. The packers are a little more lifeless than I expected, but the game will be pass heavy as predicted.

Let's compound these wins with the hopes of the Packers pulling through in the end.


Here are the Chiefs v Bills bets I like.


1. Travis Kelce - the man is unstoppable. Buffalo's secondary is incredible, but it's different when they're trying to guard a TE that also happens to be the best receiver in the world.

FanDuel gave me alternate Total yards for Kelce. I like him up to 110+ yards at +140. Also parlay him with an any time touchdown scorer for +237. The man just eats up targets. Even if Patrick isn't at a 100%, Travis will be a much easier target for Henne than Tyreek would be.

2.Mobile QBs -

Josh Allen is a monster human being, and his ability to get yards on the ground is incredible. His over/under is 37.5. However, I have to take the under here. I don't think the chiefs are going to sell out on the pass, even though the bills run game is struggling.  

Patrick Mahomes Over 14.5 yds rushing. He supposedly has turf toe, which isn't an insignificant injury. But again, the Bills secondary is looking to lock down some massive threats with Tyreek and Kelce. I believe if Patches is willing to give up on the pass quicker, he'll see quite a few yards before the secondary gets to him.

can parlay the two picks for +239 (29.5% probability).

3. Bills 2nd, 3rd, and 4th receivers

John Brown has missed a lot of time. Cole Beasley has not missed much and he is having a career year. 

Cole Beasley and annoyingly persistent self over 48.5 yds

John Brown under 50.5 yds

Parlay for +247

There is no over/under for Gabriel Davis in my view, but if you have one, I'd probably take the over as long as it's sub 45

I feel like one of Knox, McKenzie or Davis is going to score a touchdown. 


Implied that there is a 61% chance of one of them catching a TD, I think there is a bit of discount built into that, especially with Davis and Knox. If one hits, minimum profit is .75 units, while the max is 12.05. I think the chances of them all hitting is virtually impossible, but Josh may be able to sneak two TD to them if the score runs up.


Good luck and leave a comment if something hits for you. Or if you fade me and it hits instead.












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