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An Introduction - The Statue of David

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 Hello, Before we get started on making money, let's talk a little bit about who I am and why you should listen to me.  Who I am: Just an old dude that enjoys gambling and talking about it. I have worked in the investment industry for several years now, so "gambling" is far from my comfort zone. I hope to reduce the gap between smart research based investing and broad speculation gambling.  Why you should listen to me: There's not a lot of reasons, to be honest. You probably shouldn't just gamble based on talking heads and blogs anyway. However, I intend for this blog to be good for confirmation bias or a nice little advocate for taking smaller, but wiser bets. General Philosophy: I do not intend to get rich quick. My goal is to continually earn a little bit of money over a long period of time. This is how one actually gets rich. The Warren Buffet approach to gambling. However, gambling will never be my day job, and I hope it isn't yours. Though the entirety o...

Chiefs vs Bills Recap

 The game isn't officially over, but I'll get started anyway. Here's the recap of my bets. 1. Travis Kelce is in fact a beast. 2 TD plus over 110 yds. 2-0 2. Mobile QBs. 2-2 here. Josh is a beast and Diggs was struggling more than expected. Patrick looking a little more hesitant after that concussion plus turf toe. Having CEH back looked to work out well for them. 3. Bills 2,3,4 Cole Beasley - over 48.5 yds 3-2. (TOO EZ) John Brown under 50.5yds (so far). 4-2 One of Knox, Mckenzie, Davis to score. 5-2 Knox catching the first TD of the game, one reason why I didn't feel as good about this first touchdown super boost. BONUS GARBAGE TIME TUDDER TO MCKENZIE. Davis - over on yds. Missed on this. I'm still counting this, even though I didn't have the option to bet on him. 5-3. Not sure where he went. 

Packers V Bucs Recap

 Here's a quick recap of my initial bets. Including the legs of the parlay as separate items. It didn't hit, but I will get the Fanduel money back promo.  1. First touchdown scored - Mike Evans. This one was easy, I didn't hedge it, but I know I gave some hedge options and you still would have profited from it. 1-0 2. Packer Moneyline. - 1-1 I don't want to talk about it. Except, maybe give your MVP the f'n ball on fourth down when down 8 points. The worst play call I've seen in a long time. 3. Parlay - GB lead at half and win 1-2. I did mention a scotty miller touchdown earlier in the post, but he really messed me up here. Mike Evans any time touchdown scorer. 2-2 Tampa Bay over 24.5pts 3-2 Davante Any time touchdown scorer 4-2. no brainer 4. over 600 combined passing yards - 5-2. Brady and Rodgers over 285.5 each. 5-3. Tom came up 6 yards short.  I know I came out on top from the strength of the first touchdown bet and the money back from the parlay. However, ...

Chiefs v Bills

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 Alright, we already hit on the Mike Evans first TD boost in the first few minutes. The packers are a little more lifeless than I expected, but the game will be pass heavy as predicted. Let's compound these wins with the hopes of the Packers pulling through in the end. Here are the Chiefs v Bills bets I like. 1. Travis Kelce - the man is unstoppable. Buffalo's secondary is incredible, but it's different when they're trying to guard a TE that also happens to be the best receiver in the world. FanDuel gave me alternate Total yards for Kelce. I like him up to 110+ yards at +140. Also parlay him with an any time touchdown scorer for +237. The man just eats up targets. Even if Patrick isn't at a 100%, Travis will be a much easier target for Henne than Tyreek would be. 2. Mobile QBs - Josh Allen is a monster human being, and his ability to get yards on the ground is incredible. His over/under is 37.5. However, I have to take the under here. I don't think the chiefs ...

Packers and Bucs

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 Howdy, I' sure you've heard it NFL Championship Weekend. Here are a couple of things I like: First Touchdown: In general, these bets are pretty risky and not a good deal. However, even throwing a small chunk of change can pay off well.  First things first, Fan duel is offering two super boosts here. I suggest you put some money on them. 1. Mike Evans or Aaron Jones to Score First Touchdown from +363 to +470. Implied odds are now 17.54% chance. This is feels extremely comfortable. Davante Adams may be the most likely to ruin it, but the initial odds of +363 implies 21.6% probability and even that seems low given the two players. The straight up probability at Evans +1000 and Jones 6750 implies 20.86% combined. I recommend taking this bet. Mike Evans is the best red zone receiver in the league, and Aaron Jones just a beast. If you wanted to hedge the first touchdown some - these are the four options I'd go with - Davante Adams first touch down scorer at +490 (bet about 55% o...