An Introduction - The Statue of David

 Hello,

Before we get started on making money, let's talk a little bit about who I am and why you should listen to me. 

Who I am: Just an old dude that enjoys gambling and talking about it. I have worked in the investment industry for several years now, so "gambling" is far from my comfort zone. I hope to reduce the gap between smart research based investing and broad speculation gambling. 

Why you should listen to me: There's not a lot of reasons, to be honest. You probably shouldn't just gamble based on talking heads and blogs anyway. However, I intend for this blog to be good for confirmation bias or a nice little advocate for taking smaller, but wiser bets.

General Philosophy: I do not intend to get rich quick. My goal is to continually earn a little bit of money over a long period of time. This is how one actually gets rich. The Warren Buffet approach to gambling. However, gambling will never be my day job, and I hope it isn't yours. Though the entirety of this blog is built around reducing risk, gambling will always be a risky endeavor. I will not be dropping statistical bombs and trends à la Hammer Dahn. I will be showcasing events that are more likely to happen than the current odds suggest.

Things to know: Implied odds. There are several quick implied probability calculators available through a quick google search. 

I also suggest  understanding the formulas, not just reaching out to a google search every time.

Negative odds-

Implied Probability = (-1*(Odds)) / (-1(Odds) + 100)

So, a bet with -200 is projected as 66.67% (or two thirds) likely. 

Positive Odds-

Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)

So, a bet with +200 is projected as 33.33% (or one thirds) likely. 

If you didn't know that, now you do. Also, if you didn't know that, I hope you haven't been gambling for too long.

My record: Illinois has only allowed online gambling for a short period of time, but I have been moderately successful. I would personally say extremely successful given that I have never deposited a dime to my Fanduel Sportbooks account. Basically, FanDuel credited me a $10 entry into a 
DFS contest, where I won $25. Then they credited $50 to my sportsbook account out of the blue. From those $75, I have pulled a nice little stimulus package for myself. Here are my stats as of 1/24/21. It stays 2014, from the start of my Daily Fantasy account - but my sports betting career started around August 2020.

I hope many of you have made more money than I have. Again, I am not in it to getting rich quick. Many of these bets are in the $1-$5 range. You can't carve a masterpiece from marble by throwing dynamite. You have to chip away at it for a long time. It probably doesn't help my metaphor that Mt. Rushmore was quite literally formed by dynamite and a combination of sculptors. However, The Statue of David was not. We're not trying to build at the scale of Mt. Rushmore - that's a dangerous endeavor requiring hundreds of men and fourteen years. We're carving the Statue of David (with a bigger dick this time). A smaller, but still renown piece of art taking a single (gifted and dedicated) man three years. 

Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoy and profit from your time on this blog. Let's start carving.